Reuters is forecasting what the Top Ten drugs will be in just four years time. The winner is the cancer drug Avastin (Roche) (ROG.VX). Avastin is expected to jump to number one because other hot drugs – Lipitor and Plavix- will lose their patent protection in 2011 and 2012.
Reuters reports that the use of injectable biotech drugs for cancer and rheumatoid arthritis competitors will grow commercially. Ed Silverman of Pharmalot asks what this says about the giant drugmakers? Will pills become passé? And how will this impact the costs of drugs?
Consensus sales forecasts for world's top 10 drugs in 2014:
1. Avastin (cancer) Roche $8.9 bln
2. Humira (arthritis) Abbott (ABT.N) $8.5 bln
3. Enbrel (arthritis) Pfizer(PFE.N)/Amgen(AMGN.O) $8.0 bln
4. Crestor (cholesterol) AstraZeneca (AZN.L) $7.7 bln
5. Remicade (arthritis) Merck(MRK.N)/J&J(JNJ.N) $7.6 bln
6. Rituxan (cancer) Roche $7.4 bln
7. Lantus (diabetes) Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA) $7.1 bln
8. Advair (asthma/COPD) GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) $6.8 bln
9. Herceptin (cancer) Roche $6.4 bln
10.NovoLog (diabetes) Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) $5.7 bln
Consensus forecasts for 2010:
1. Lipitor (cholesterol) Pfizer $11.7 bln
2. Plavix (anticlotting) Sanofi/Bristol (BMY.N) $9.6 bln
3. Advair (asthma/COPD) GlaxoSmithKline $9.0 bln
4. Remicade (arthritis) Merck/J&J $7.4 bln
5. Enbrel (arthritis) Pfizer/Amgen $7.1 bln
6. Humira (arthritis) Abbott $6.8 bln
7. Avastin (cancer) Roche $6.7 bln
8. Rituxan (cancer) Roche $6.1 bln
9. Diovan (hypertension) Novartis $6.0 bln
10.Crestor (cholesterol) AstraZeneca $5.8 bln